Merry Christmas

Have a great Holiday!  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Fairway Markets (FWM)

The stock has pulled back from when I recommended you all to buy it.  I think it's formed a nice base at these levels.  They have added Alcohal sales at some of their stores that didn't have them.  This Christmas their sales will be much improved from last year at this time.  Look for $4 a share in 2015 and $10 within 2 years!  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Intel

I still love Intel (INTC). The stock and the company.  Still rate it a strong buy, IMHO.   Thanks for reading and good luck investing. Tony

Intel

I told you all this stock was going to go up. I remain just as bullish!  Buy and hold.   Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Fairway (FWM)

I just increased my position in this company a week ago at $2.40 a share.  The stock broke out of it's decent and is now at $3.80!  It's not too late to get in on this one.  I see $10 a share in the year 2015.    Now that tax loss selling is behind them the shares should rise into 2015.  The company is turning the ship around as we speak.  Go into one of their stores and see the tons of happy shoppers. Their food quality is as high as Whole Foods but you won't go broke shopping there.  I am a customer as well as a shareholder.  Good luck investing. Tony

Stock Posting

I haven't done a real post here in awhile.   Sorry my life has been bust lately.  Sunday I will write about a new stock I started investing in.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Intel (INTC)

I told you guys to buy Intel.   It's not too late, it's still on sale.  The stock has started to come back but still has a ways to go to get to fair value.  But now, collect the dividend, and wait for the big gains.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Intel Buy Time

Intel (INTC) stock is once again on sale!  It's been pulled down this week with the whole needed Stock Market correction.  IMHO It's fallen way further than the fundamentals came for. I am doubling up my position come Monday.  I hate to say it but it's back up the truck and buy time!  Thanks for reading and good luck at the tables,  Tony

Stock's on Sale

I hate to repeat myself but we are having another pull back so it's another great buying chance on the cheap.  I hope we correct 10% from the recent highs.   I will look to back up the truck and buy shares that are on sale.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Alibaba IPO

The best way to benefit from the Alibaba IPO(BABA) is by owning/buying stock in Yahoo (YHOO).  Right now one of those stock market anomalies is going on.  Yahoo's market cap is currently less than their stake in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan!  This will only last for so long.  Eventually the market will fix this and Yahoo's stock will go way up.  I have been buying them the whole year starting at $30 a share for this very reason. shares are now $40 and I would expect to see $60 within a year.  thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Whole Foods (WFM) Stock Sale

This companies stock is going way up over time.  On their expansion to 1200 stores countywide the stock will appreciate at least 1000%!  They are the most well run Organic product seller in the world.  Collect the dividend and wait for their turn around, you won't be sorry.  I haven't seen such a great situation since Intel's (INTC) turn around.  You see how well that has gone for all my readers and I.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Yes More Intel Advice

Nothing has changed to the bad about this company (INTC).   I have been telling you all to buy it since the low 20s.  Now it's in the mid $35 range and I still think it's a great buy.  Collect the 2.75% dividend and watch it grow.   Good luck investing.  Tony

Whole Foods

I am going to write a stock pick of the week post, every week starting today.  Drum roll please.... The pick of the week is Whole foods Market (WFM).   The stock has been beaten down over 40% in the last year.  I believe the Market has over worried about the Organic Food competition coming from "Normal" super markets.  Whole Foods has a loyal customer that gets the "Whole Foods experience".  With only 300 stores there is plenty of room to grow revenues up towards the estimated  1200 stores America can have.  Small Dividend but I believe it will grow nicely over time.  Short and Long term buy and hold.  Thanks for reading and good luck at the tables.  Tony

Intel (INTC)

Intel like the rest of the market, is on sale for the short term.  I see this as a great entry point for a new investment.  Also as a great time to up my your position in this company that has clearly turned the corner to growth once again.  Collect the 3% dividend in the mean time.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Stock Market Correction

Finally a 5% correction in the Market!  There are plenty if bargains out there to be had.  Examples for me are Coke (KO) and Whole Foods (WFM).  Both are currently out of favor, which IMHO is the best time to buy them.  Both I consider great short and long term holdings.  Thanks for reading and good luck at the tables.  Tony

Intel

I hate to say I told you so but Intel (INTC) had a great week of gains.  I believe the gains have only started and look for $40 a share within a year.  Thanks for reading and good luck at the tables.  Tony

July 4th

Happy July 4th to all my readers!

Intel (INTC)

I hope all my readers took my advice on Intel.  Hope you all bought in the low $20 a share range when I was first posting about buying it.  I believe the stock still has a Long way to go on the upside.   Collect the now 3%, soon to be raised Dividend, and hold for the long haul. IMHO.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Good Intel (INTC) Article

Why It's Time for Intel to Raise Its Dividend

By Bob Ciura | More Articles
June 17, 2014 | Comments (1)

Now that semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ: INTC  ) has raised its guidance for this year, the next step management can take to enhance shareholder value would be to increase the dividend.
Intel hasn't given investors a dividend raise in nearly two years. Indeed, there was good reason for this. Intel is still reliant on the personal computer, and has struggled to get its chips into tablets and other mobile devices. In an increasingly mobile world, there were rampant fears that the personal computer would go the way of the buggy whip.
As a result, it's understandable that Intel needed to save as much cash as it could to invest in new technologies. Apparently, Intel is finally seeing enough progress on these measures to announce it will likely return to revenue growth this year. And, assuming margins expand as anticipated, profits will grow as well.
But Intel isn't the only company going through this. Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ  ) is in the middle of its own turnaround. HP is busily investing in new markets and product categories, but that hasn't stopped it from increasing its dividend several times over the past few years.
With the dark storm clouds no longer hanging over Intel's head, it's time to reward loyal shareholders with a dividend increase.
All eyes on the payout
Intel hasn't raised its dividend in quite some time, but it didn't have to. With so many concerns about the state of its business and its declining profits, Intel's stock price was stuck in the doldrums. That kept Intel's dividend yield fairly high, since a stock price and dividend yield are inversely related. The stock was already a high-yielder, especially for its industry.
Plainly stated, there wasn't much urgency for Intel management to raise its dividend when it yielded nearly 4%. But now that Intel's share price has recovered and sits at $30 per share, a level not seen in a decade. In turn, its yield is back down to 3%.
Nevertheless, Intel's lack of a dividend raise is a curious decision. It's certainly true that the uncertainties in the rapidly evolving world of technology are cause for conservatism. But Intel is still highly profitable, with little debt on the balance sheet to worry about and a comfortable payout ratio. And, Intel holds $10 billion in cash and short-term securities, which in all likelihood isn't earning anything for shareholders.
Intel generated $1.89 in earnings per share last year. Its $0.90 per share dividend equates to just a 47% payout ratio, which is already a very modest level. And, now that Intel expects revenue growth and margin expansion this year, it stands to reason the payout ratio will drop going forward as earnings per share likely increase.
Equally confusing is that Intel's PC peer HP hasn't held back its dividend increases. HP has had its own fair share of PC-related headaches. It's seen first-hand the effects of a huge and mature company struggling to break the chains of old technology. To that end, HP's revenue is down 1% over the past six months, which makes it clear the company still has a ways to go before its turnaround is complete.
But that hasn't stopped HP from raising its dividend along the way. Since Intel announced its last dividend increase, HP has upped its own payout three times, including the most recent 10% bump.
Show shareholders the money, Intel
Intel once held the reputation of a dividend growth stalwart. Until 2012, the company had raised its payout every year for a decade. That all came to a halt, however, when the mobile revolution caught Intel completely off guard.
Since then, Intel has plowed most of its cash flow into new product categories. Fortunately, there are finally glimmers of hope that these investments will pay off. After a few years of stagnant results, Intel expects revenue growth and margin expansion this year.
Assuming it hits its projections, there's no reason why Intel can't raise its dividends. It maintains a conservative payout ratio and holds a rock-solid balance sheet stuffed with cash. Loyal shareholders have stuck with Intel through thick and thin. It's now time to reward them with a dividend increase.

Intel Brag

What have been telling you all about Intel (INTC) for the last 2 years?  I kept saying buy it with a price target of $30 within 2 years! Well I was right and I still say buy it at these levels. We should see $40 a share within the next year and a half.  The Windows XP replacement cycle is just starting to heat up.  Intel will be the biggest beneficiary of it, especially from their business customers.  Look for a Dividend raise this year too.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Correction Time?

It looks like a short term correction may finally be upon us in the Stock Market.  If Intel goes down 5% from the top back up the truck and buy some more!  These days they are making all the right moves.   If you have been listening to me you have been reaping the rewards.  No reason for it to stop now.   Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Wendy's (WEN)

I feel this stock is getting ready for a breakout to the upside.  It has been stuck in a $7.50-$8.50 range for all of 2014 so far.  Once it breaks past $8.50 I see $10 a share right around the corner.  Plus I love the whole long term turn around play for the company.  $20 a share and a higher dividend within the next 2 years are highly likely.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Intel Stock

This stock has been hanging tough all week.  I expect a big breakout to the upside soon.  This is just my short term gut feeling.  Still think it's a great time for a long term buy.  I've been collecting my 3.6% dividend waiting for the breakout for awhile.  It's like money in the bank.  Plus with a Sharebuilder account dividends are reinvested free and automatically.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Stock Sale

While the Market is up many quality Stocks are on sale right now.  Intel (INTC) has been marked down from $26.75 to it's current $25.82.  A few more percent and I will have to back up the truck and buy a lot more.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Pinnancle Foods (PF)

I love making good stock picks!  I've been in this one for a year with nice appreciation and collecting a decent dividend.  Today a deal was announced and they are getting bought out at a 20% premium.  Not bad my investment in this company is currently worth 18% more!  I love making the right moves.  Good luck investing. Tony

Wendys (WEN) Update

Wendy's had entered into oversold territory this week.  Buy now are hold for the long haul.  Nothing has changed to the negative for this company.  Actually the store renovations have been a big success so far.  Plus they doubled their dividend last year.  I would think another dividend increase will happen later in year.  Buy now for the long haul.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Bank Of America (BAC)

WTF?  Today they announce, do to an accounting error, they aren't raising their Dividend and are suspending the increased share buy back.   Now I have egg on my face!  Goes to show you never know what news can come out to change the share price of any company.  Just making educated guesses with Stock Market Investing.  I still love their story long term so this may be a short term sale to get in at a good low price.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Intel (INTC)

Intel, like the market, corrected this week.  This is a great time to get into the company for the long haul.  They are really staring to get traction in the Tablet chip market space. I believe the 40 million chip goal of theirs will be surpassed.  I think we will see $30 a share before 2015.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Bank of America (BAC)

I am recommending a new stock today, Bank of America (BAC).  They just got government approval to start paying a "Real" dividend again, as opposed to the 1 cent a share they have been paying since 2008. With the market correction this week the stock has made a big correction.  From close to $18 a share down to the $15 range.  It's a sale so back up the truck and buy it here for the long haul.  Over the next few years the stock will rise as they keep raising their dividend and buy back shares.  Over this week I will write some more articles about this company.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Intel Update

Great news for Intel (INTC) this week.  Microsoft has announced they will give away Windows 8 to phone and tablet manufacturers.  This is huge for them being this was the problem with Windows 8 tablets having a higher selling price than Android and Apple Tablets.  I now believe they will have their chips in more than the original 40 million tablets they projected.  If this happens the damn will finally burst on their share price.  This and I believe they will raise their dividend later this year.  Right now collect the 3.6% yield and wait for the break out to the upside.  This was a down week on wall street yet the shares were up anyway.  That is another positive sign that the stock is ready for a short term upside move.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Intel

Intel (INTC) has been on the move this week.  It crossed the all important $25 a share level and held above it all week. I take this as a great technical short time sign. You can make money in this one short or long term.  Buy here and collect the 3.6% dividend while you wait.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Intel

Intel has finally broken through the $25 a share level.  I see it testing the $28 level this year.  Don't miss this great opportunity to buy a super blue chip paying almost a 4% dividend!  Buy and hold forever. It works for Warren Buffet!  Good luck investing.  Tony

Intel

Does AMD Stand a Chance Against Intel's Cherry Trail?

By Ashraf Eassa | More Articles
March 13, 2014 | Comments (1)

At Intel's (NASDAQ: INTC  ) investor meeting, CFO Stacy Smith was keen to highlight the cost savings in the low-end PC space in moving from its Bay Trail-M/D products to the Celeron version of its Broxton system-on-chip, which was designed primarily for smartphones and tablets. Indeed, according to the following graphic, the cost reduction from the current-generation Bay Trail-M/D to Broxton, a 2015 product, is on the order of 37%.

(Source: Intel)

What about Cherry Trail?
The above chart has Intel moving from the 22-nanometer Bay Trail to the 14-nanometer Broxton, completely skipping over Cherry Trail, the successor to Bay Trail in tablets, shown in Intel's most recent mobile roadmap.

(Source: Intel)

It's understandable that Intel would skip doing a Cherry Trail-based smartphone chip as the company attempts to accelerate to leadership with Broxton. But it has always been odd that Intel had implied that it would be skipping over Cherry Trail for low-end notebook and desktop PCs. After all, Cherry Trail – from some of the leaked specifications thus far – seems like it would be a more-than-potent successor to Intel's current Bay Trail-M/D lines for low-end notebooks and desktops, respectively. It turns out that the company is indeed bringing out Cherry Trail-M/D.
The evidence is crystal clear
A website known as Zauba allows users to track products that are imported into and exported out of India. In doing a search for anything related to a potential Cherry Trail-M/D part, the following came up:

(Source: Zauba)

It looks as though Intel has every intention of bringing to market a 14-nanometer, Cherry Trail-based line of low-end PC processors. This is great news for Intel and its PC margins, as these chips should be extremely small and cheap to make. Unfortunately, it's not so fantastic news for Intel's weaker rival, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD  ) , particularly as Cherry Trail will not just be cheap to make, but will be extremely low-power and feature a significantly overhauled graphics engine.
AMD is stuck
Today, AMD competes at the low end against Intel's Bay Trail-M/D with a part known as Kabini. This is a 28-nanometer SoC based on the Jaguar CPU core and AMD's in-house Radeon graphics IP. While it offers higher graphics performance than Intel's part -- and roughly equivalent CPU performance -- it consumes a lot more power. In addition, Intel is building these chips on 22-nanometer manufacturing plants that have been paid for by the company's Ivy Bridge and Haswell generation of PC processors. AMD, on the other hand, needs to hand the foundry margin over to Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM  ) , which impacts its ability to engage in a price war profitably with Intel.
When Intel moves to 14-nanometer, the chipmaker will have roughly a two-generation manufacturing lead. That means Intel will be able to pack far more features into far less of a die area than AMD can at 28nm. Further, Intel's Cherry Trail is likely to neutralize or perhaps even reverse the graphics advantage that AMD currently enjoys, but it will be able to do so in a much tighter power envelope. It's just not a pretty situation for AMD, which makes it difficult to believe in an AMD share-maintenance story, let alone a share-growth story in PCs.
Foolish bottom line
AMD is doing the best it can, but the deck really is stacked against the company. With Intel aggressively fighting with Bay Trail-M/D today and with plans to transition to Cherry Trail-M/D presumably by the holiday season, can AMD's much-hyped Beema/Mullins really stand a chance?

Yet Another Intel Article

Ashraf Eassa

Long/short equity, contrarian, independent research, tech

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Intel An Embarrassment? No.

Mar. 7, 2014 9:10 AM ET  |  58 comments |  About: INTC, Includes: QCOM

Disclosure: I am long INTC. (More...)

Summary

• Intel has been accused of being an embarrassment by noted columnist, Rocco Pendola.
• While mobile execution not great, the article claims Intel's brand is worthless.
• This assertion is flat-out wrong.

When I checked the Intel (INTC) headlines on Yahoo! Finance, I saw a piece titled, "Intel Has Become An Embarrassment" on The Street. I was actually stricken by just how the piece actually failed to substantiate its key bearish arguments against Intel. In particular, I take issue with the following remarks:

If anybody wins at wearables it's not going to be Intel, a company with zero brand cachet with consumers and a legacy that will completely expire if Apple ever takes over the chip slot on its Macbooks.

And, of course,

The more Intel loses, the less it can afford to lose.

Now, let me be perfectly upfront and say that I actually agree with the author that "wearables" will mostly turn out to be a fad, and I further agree that Intel has no business actually selling end-devices to users (since, after all, Intel is a chip company), but the other claims... Well, I humbly offer my rebuttal.

No Brand Cachet?

According to the author, Intel has zero brand cachet with consumers. I mean, after all, Intel only has that cutesy "Intel Inside" logo plastered onto about 80% (and growing) of the Windows PCs on the planet. (Ironically enough, the MacBook/iMac line don't have this branding, so Apple's piddly 16 million computers sold per year wouldn't mean much to Intel should Apple try to have a go at it with its own chips). Oh, and the PC market is only a 300-million unit market today.
Sure, you can argue that the PC market is in perpetual decline (I think the traditional PC market is on the decline, but the rise of convertibles and Intel's foray into tablets will, in time, more than offset this), but what you can't argue with is that according to Interbrand (you know, just one of the world's largest brand consultancies), Intel is the 9th most valuable brand in the world.
Yes, folks. Even though Intel blew it and is no longer the world's largest semiconductor company by market capitalization (that'd be Qualcomm (QCOM)), it still has by far the most powerful brand of any semiconductor company and, as far as technology goes, is only slightly behind Samsung.

Intel Can Afford To Lose On These Hobbies

It's obvious that Intel's executive team collectively blew it when it came to pursuing the mobile market - they underestimated the market and, more importantly, the competition, so I completely agree that the clock is ticking on its mobile strategy. This is doubly true as Intel is not only not seeing a return on its massive ~$4b/year investment in mobile (this is Qualcomm-level, without the Qualcomm revenues), but the PC market (Intel's core business) is in secular decline as far as anybody can tell, so success here is imperative.
I also agree that Intel shouldn't be wasting money on acquisitions of third-rate "wearables" makers like Basis (seriously, go read the Amazon reviews of their products sometime - utterly junk), but $100 million here or there for a company that generates ~$11 billion/year in free cash flow just isn't going to break the bank. If Intel wants to make these acquisitions and potentially learn something about the industries it may want to supply chips into, then why not? All of Intel's failed mobile chips thus far have cost >$100 million each to develop, but the company presumably learned something from those failures.

Conclusion

Does Intel need to pull it together in mobile and start developing leadership products? Of course.
Is the PC market in deep trouble? Depends on your definition of "PC".
Does Intel need to get a pretty significant chunk of the mobile pie in order to offset PC declines? Of course.
But is Intel's brand worthless? Will spending a couple-hundred million to learn about wearables really break the bank? Nope.
Is Intel an embarrassment? Well, do any other chip design houses own their own fabs, generate $50 billion in semiconductor revenue, and have a more valuable brand than Intel?
No.

Intc Positive Post

I just read another positive post over at Seeking Alpha about Intel's Tablet plans.  A year from now when they will have sold over 40 million Tablet chips will will look at this time as the Stock's "Tipping Point".  This will have been a great time to but and hold INTC for the long haul.  In March of 2015 I will be posing about what a great year it was to be holding Intel's stock.  After cashing my 4% dividend payments and seeing a 50% price rise in the stock.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU)

Ayush Singh

Growth, long-term horizon, momentum, tech

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Is Alcatel-Lucent Pegged For Another Excellent Year?

Feb. 18, 2014 7:20 AM ET  |  About: ALU, Includes: QCOM

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

Executive summary:

• Return to profitability indicates that the "Shift Plan" is working.
• Partnership with Qualcomm to launch multimode cells in 2014 will benefit Alcatel in the coming years.
• Continued divestment will improve Alcatel's overall financial outlook, helping it to sustain profitability in the long-run.
• Despite the heroics of 2013, Alcatel is cheaper than its peers and has more room to grow.
• A great buy at present valuations.

__________________________
Everyone loves comebacks. Betting on the turnaround of a company can prove to be very lucrative for investors and over the last few years, tech investors have witnessed a number of impressive turnarounds. 2013 was a good year for many struggling companies like Nokia (NOK) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ); however, French-American communications giant Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) was the center of attention. Shares of Alcatel-Lucent appreciated over 300% in 2013 owing to the long-awaited rebound in the telecommunication equipment industry. And I expect the company to continue its bull run in 2014 due several factors which I have discussed below.

"Shift Plan" Is Working

Alcatel-Lucent is headed in the right direction under the leadership of new CEO Michel Combes. Combes' bold Shift Plan, which includes vigorous cost saving initiatives like diversification and overhead reduction, seems to be working out perfectly. This is evident by the fact that Alcatel-Lucent delivered its first quarterly profit in two years earlier this month. For the reported quarter, Alcatel's adjusted earnings came in at $0.08 per share, which was well above the consensus estimate of negative $0.01. Gross margin for the quarter was also up 400 basis points to 34.3%, while free cash flow improved $164.5 million.
However, on the revenue front, Alcatel fell short of the consensus estimate $5.7 billion by $300 million. The main question is, with top-line growth being non-existent; will Alcatel be able to continue its bullish run in 2014? I think it can and here's why.

Deal With Qualcomm Will Benefit Alcatel

Alcatel announced a partnership with Qualcomm (QCOM) to develop multimode cells in July 2013. The multimode cells that combine Alcatel's lightRadio radio access network (RAN) with Qualcomm's small cell chips are expected to hit the market by mid-2014. The two companies expect to launch small cells with improved wireless network reception in environments such as urban areas, shopping malls and other enterprise venues. Mike Schabel, VP of Alcatel-Lucent's small cell department, declared that all of Alcatel's small cells will have integrated Wi-Fi going forward.
As of now, site acquisition, and delivery of backhaul are the primary factors restricting the wide-scale deployment of small cells. However, Alcatel aims to steer clear of these roadblocks by a site certification program that brings together a variety of partners.
As of January, Alcatel has 65 contracted, revenue-generating customers in 42 countries. The soaring sales of smart devices have led to an increase in demand for data usage and rollout of small cell base stations is expected to boost network speed, help operators speed installation of the vendors' metro cells, and reduce overheads for the company.

Source: LightReading.com
Schnabel said Alcatel-Lucent now has a database of 600,000 qualified sites across the United States and Western Europe that are available for small cell deployment and as per a report from the Small Cell Forum; this number could rise to nearly 11.5 million by 2018. Thus, the company is well set to benefit from this deal.

Continued Divestment

Presently, revenue growth is not a part of Alcatel's plan as the company is more focused on streamlining its business. Combes promised the sales of non-profitable assets worth €1 billion and a €1 billion reduction in overheads by 2015 as a part of his Shift Plan. The positive effects of Shift Plan are visible in the company's quarterly report as the company's operating income and gross margin jumped 167% and 4%, respectively.
The company is also in talks to sell 85% stake in its enterprise unit to China Huaxin in a deal worth $362 million. The sale, which is due to be completed before the end of the second quarter, would be the second disposal administered by Combes. The continued divestment will not only help Alcatel to boost its gross margin and operating income, but is also important to enhance the company's overall financial outlook. As you know, Alcatel is a highly leveraged company with total debt/equity ratio of over 168. Consequently, in some quarters, the company fails to generate enough cash to keep up with the interest expenses. Thus, the divestments and overhead reduction is important as it will help Alcatel to pay off debts and transform it into a company that can be sustainably profitable over the long term.

Why Buy

Despite having a stellar year, Alcatel has more room to grow than peers like Nokia and Ericsson. For the reported quarter, Alcatel's operating margin jumped 5% to 7.8%, however, it's still less than Nokia and Ericsson, which reported operating margins of 11.2% and 10.3%, respectively. Going forward, the disposal of Enterprise business will further improve Alcatel's operating margins. And given that it has the least operating margin amongst its peers; it is highly likely that it will outperform them in 2014 as well. Moreover, with a price/sales ratio of 0.51 Alcatel is cheapest of the lot; therefore I think investors should buy it before it gets pricey.

I couldn't give the case for ALU better so I cut and pasted this from Seeking Alpha.  I have been long ALU for a few years, starting getting in around $1.20 a share.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Intel

Intel's stock looks to be back on track for gains after the short market correction.  I am happy with management's progress lately.  Am getting paid almost 4% to wait for traction in the Tablet/Smart phone chip market.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Intel Update

Nothing bad has happened to this company this week.   Yet it's $2 a share cheaper than last week.  I love when stocks are on sale.  Back up the truck and buy some more is what I think.  Enjoy the Super Bowl all.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Intel Article

This article from Seeking Alpha sums up my thoughts on Intel (INTC) perfectly.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Ashraf Eassa

Long/short equity, contrarian, independent research, tech

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Intel: Don't Believe The Lies

Jan. 24, 2014 10:16 AM ET |  57 comments |  About: INTC

Disclosure: I am long INTC. (More...)

While I do pride myself on a better-than-average grasp on the English language, I find myself unable to really express my frustration whenever I see comments such as the following with respect to Intel's (INTC) tablet strategy:

It's not a "win" of a slot, when Intel essentially gives the part away. "Win" implies competition on the merits. "Contra revenue" is a humorous marketing/accounting creation, synonymous with "unable to compete on the merits."

So, this is a pretty common misconception that I feel needs to be better explained to the investment community.
Repeat after me:
Intel isn't giving away its "Bay Trail" chips to win tablet share.
The "Contra Revenue" Thing
So, right off the bat, it's important to understand just why Intel is providing subsidies for its mobile platforms. Rather than explain it myself, I will defer to Intel CEO Brian Krzanich, who explained it beautifully on the most recent call:

Sure. This isn't a price reduction as normal price reduction would be; it's not where you are just simply reducing. It's truly a BOM cost equalizer and remember a lot of our 40 million tablets in '14 will be based on Bay Trail. Bay Trail was originally designed for Atom-based PC segments and the upper end tablet. And so it's what we are doing here is doing a BOM cast delta relative to the what the mid and lower end tablets require. And so those are things like Bay Trail may require more layers of a printed circuit board for the board itself, more components on the board and tighter power management controls and things like that. We have a whole program to reduce those throughout the year. So that gives us confidence that as we go through the year, the BOM cast [sic] delta will shrink, but if the volume didn't show up for some reason and I am not going to say that, that's what's going to happen, but I am confident it will, but if it didn't it's on a per unit basis. And so the spending on that contra would be reduced equivalently.

Got it? Intel isn't selling its chips "below cost" or even "at cost" to try to gain share. Bay Trail was originally designed as a netbook chip and only mid-way through its development (probably iPad launch did the trick) did Intel decide to do a tablet-oriented SKU. It's obvious given the lack of integration in the SoC that this is the case, and it makes sense that the platform surrounding it would be pretty expensive and more notebook like.
Anybody who tells you that Intel is "unjustly" winning designs by "giving them away" is simply being intellectually lazy and not giving you the whole picture. If you're going to invest your hard earned money in individual securities, you absolutely cannot afford to be misled like this. With technology companies, especially one as hated by investors and competitors alike, such FUD is very easy to spread since most people will just accept the "easy" headline as truth.
Now, am I trying to say that the fact that Intel is in a position of needing to provide contra-revenue support is a good thing? No, as a shareholder I'm actually beyond irritated that we have to incur this hit. However, putting aside emotions, there is a very real silver-lining here when thinking about 2015 financials.
The Silver Lining
Let's assume that Intel's contra-revenue gig works out and the company ships "over 40 million" tablet chips during 2014 (we'll say the range is between 40 million - 60 million, since I've seen the 60 million number floated around quite a bit).
We know the following:

• Intel has stated that Broxton (a part that Intel has claimed will eliminate the BoM delta) will have a BoM that is $20 cheaper than Bay Trail's. So Intel is providing about $20 of contra-revenue support for its Bay Trail parts (depending, of course, on how low/high end that part is).
• The tablet market is growing and Intel is likely to continue to gain share over the next few years
• SoFIA and Broxton will eliminate the BoM cost delta and 2015 should be free-and-clear of this contra-revenue business
• Intel guided to $4B in sales in Other IA, under the assumption that Bay Trail will provide roughly zero net revenue during the year

With that in mind, we realize that in 2015, the following happens:

• The BoM cost delta that impacts gross margin by 1.5% goes away and all Atom parts for tablets/phones will be accretive to gross margin dollars
• Intel will likely ship anywhere from 60-100 million tablet chips, all of which gross margin accretive
• Intel's tablet platform costs likely come down in addition to the lack of contra revenue thanks to the 14-nanometer process providing a significant die size/cost improvement

So, some quick, back-of-the-envelope math suggests that Intel could recognize (assuming tablet chip ASP of $20 and per-chip production cost of $8) the following:

• $20 * 60-100 million = $1.2B - $2B
• Gross margin of 60% (selling price =$20, production cost = $8)
• Gross profit = $720M - $1.2B

Now, it is my belief from the current annual losses in Other IA that opex (MG&A + R&D) comes in at about $3 billion/year for the division. I therefore believe that it would take a $6 billion/year run-rate at 50% gross margin for Intel to break-even in Other IA and to completely wipe clean the $3B/year loss that we are about to see in 2014.
I think that in 2015, Intel could actually bring this division to breakeven on the following drivers:

• Assume 80 million tablet chip sales at $20/chip
• Assume "Intelligent Systems" sales at about $2.5B (this is pretty high margin business, by the way)
• Assume that Intel sees baseband revenue (remember, Intel will be well into the ramp of XMM 7260) of $1B (this would require the sale of 66 million basebands at ~$15/pop...very achievable)
• Assume that Intel sells 50 million smartphone apps processors at $20/unit

This all works out to $6.1B in net revenue. Assuming now Intel can do this at 50% gross margin, and assuming operating expenses of $3B, and viola, our operating loss vaporizes!
What Would Intel Shares Be Worth, Then?
I assume that Intel will deliver on its flat operating profit guide in 2014 for PCs, and I assume that this will persist into 2015 (although I am hopeful for a recovery to growth, I don't want to bake it in). I also assume that DCG growth will be 11% in 2014 over 2013 and then 10% in 2015 over 2014 (sorry, Intel, but I really don't buy your 15% CAGR nonsense).
This leads me to the following operating income numbers for 2015:

• $11.8 billion for PCCG (flat y/y)
• $5.73 billion for DCG (+12% Y/Y)
• $0.00 billion for Other IA
• $150 million for software and services
• ($2.25 billion) for all other <--- 2015="" a="" by="" foundry="" grossly="" guess...if="" in="" is="" kicking="" li="" loss.="" operating="" overestimates="" the="" then="" this="" wild="">

Netting this all out, I get an operating income number of $15.43B. Assuming a 27% tax rate, this gets me to $11.26 billion in net income (EPS of $2.27).
Assuming that the market is willing to pay 15x (likely for an Intel that can actually execute in mobile as I am assuming here) EPS, then this works out to a share price of $34, achievable by early 2015 once full-year guidance is given. Further, once Intel is breakeven (or better) in Other IA, there is plenty of leverage to be had and as 2015 progresses, 2016 estimates (especially if PC sales do come back) would point to earnings per share much closer to the $3/share level.
Conclusion
Intel has so much potential to really drive operating income up if it can just execute in mobile and keep PCs flattish to slightly up. I have no doubt that Intel will eventually succeed, but no investor lives forever. I am more than willing to stay on board as long as I see Intel building a solid design win base from which to launch profitably into 2015, but if it becomes clear that Intel is still having problems in 2015, then I really do think it'll be time to throw in the towel.
However, that time is not now, and I remain long - albeit much more cautiously optimistic over the next year. At any rate, don't believe the nonsense and the lies that Intel is "giving away" tablet chips. This contra-revenue support will go away likely by 2015, and then there will be a pretty significant uptick in profitability from that point on, assuming that the designs that Intel won in 2014 are refreshed with Intel silicon in 2015.

Intel Update

Intel's earning weren't great and the stock took a hit.  I look for it to correct some more in the short term.  Should provide a nice entry point for the patient long term investor.  For me I will pick up more shares cheaper.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Reversing a Stock Sell

I got out of Wendy's Stock at $6.75 a share.  After a few weeks I realized I had existed out of a good investment long term.  Thanks fully I started re buying it at $6.40 a share all the way up to $8.50.  I have a nice position in it once again and am collecting the Dividend, which has doubled in the mean time.  Being able to admit when you are wrong in a stock and undoing it is a very valuable trait to have.  Good luck investing.  Tony

Intel (INTC)

The stock has held up well in the face of the little correction I believe has started in 2014.  I think a good healthy 5% correction is needed to get the froth out of the market.  Can't wait to see if Intel can really get their foot in the door via the Tablet market.  Lower margins but much higher revenues should be ok for them.  Also look for a Dividend hike early this year, maybe 2nd quarter.  Thanks for reading and good luck investing.  Tony

Happy New Year!

Wishing the Stock Market does as well as 2013 in the new year!  Good luck investing.  Tony